by Jonathan Reisman

In early August, I drove northeast up through Meddybemps and saw something unexpected and anachronistic: the beautiful and bountiful blueberry fields southwest of the Dennys River were covered with a diverse mob of human rakers instead of the cavalry of blueberry harvest combines that has been the more recent practice. Given labor shortages, low labor force participation rates, and border aggravations, a return to more migrant labor-intensive blueberry harvests is somewhat surprising, although the high price of energy and diesel fuel (thank you President Biden and climate alarmists) somewhat favors humans over machines.

In any case, the site of exploited and oppressed migrant workers reminded me that surprise/unexpected events often can turn carefully prepared predictive models into misinformation mush.  Specific black swan events cannot be predicted (although the climate alarmists apparently do have that Delphic ability), but such events have already repeatedly occurred. The Trump assassination attempt is one example, and the Kamalot coup is another. If you think those events likely had human planners and catalysts, you are probably both a conspiracy theorist and a “pouncing” Republican “seizing” on an opportunity to revel in misogynistic racism. You are probably “weird” too. (Notice that the only difference between “weird” and “wired” is the placement of “e”?)

The Secret Service’s astounding DEI incompetence is bad enough, but there is the nagging conspiracy theory possibility that it was more than just equity idiocy but actual deep state/intelligence community Trump Derangement Syndrome. If some combination of malevolence and negligence had assassinated Trump, especially before he announced a running mate, things would look even better for Kamala and company. 

Because American leadership looks particularly weak at the moment, adverse black swan events are likely. Any or all of the following may be coming to a consequential election near you:

• Acting President Kamala. An increasingly detached, demented, and befuddled Biden effectively cedes command to Acting President Harris, who does a better job with the optics than she did as border czar. Running as the incumbent will boost Kamala’s chances and gaslight the question of who is really in charge now. My disenfranchised vote is for Dr. Jill, Susan Rice, and Nancy Pelosi. Maybe Mean Girls is on Netflix

• Iran and their terrorist proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis) attack Israel (again and repeatedly), and a wider regional war opens up in the Middle East. The legacy media continues to ignore or obscure the fact that Biden’s (and Obama’s) Iran appeasement policies financed the terrorism. The price of oil goes over $125/barrel, gas prices spike, and Acting President Harris taps the rest of the already depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent gasoline from rising to $5/gallon before the election. Acting President Harris appoints defeated squad member Rep. Cori Bush as peace negotiator between the Jews and the Democratic Party. 

• China invades the Taiwan chip factory, and Acting President Harris sends her running mate Tim Walz back to his honeymoon suite in Beijing to plead with the Chinese to continue to provide Tik Tok, only destroy one democracy from column A, and not to be burdened by the past.

• The Democratic Party refutes charges of anti-Semitism, noting their unwavering support for Jewish Ukrainian President Zelensky, who is fighting Putin rather than making deals with him like Trump. Democratic disdain for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu is not anti-Semitic. The left just hates conservatives and especially people who insist on defending themselves. Besides, some of their best friends are Jews.